Inferential Monopoly Theory

Abstract

This paper examines Inferential Monopoly—market concentration arising from control over computational consideration infrastructure in AI-mediated allocation systems. When allocation depends on computational consideration sets, control over the infrastructure that constructs these sets becomes allocative monopoly power, even without explicit market dominance in traditional metrics.

We analyze how infrastructure operators may extract rents through consideration set construction, qualification criteria, and admissibility thresholds. The framework is entirely theoretical; no empirical validation of market power or competitive effects is attempted.